After 200% Increase, Supply Still Nearly 40% Below Normal
Sale Prices Up 3.5% Since December
 
For Buyers:
 
Rates defied industry predictions once again and rose over a point from 5.99% to 7.1% between February 2nd and March 2nd. For the past 4 weeks, rates have hovered in the upper 6% range, figuratively “pinching the hose” on demand during the popular Spring season for buyers. At 9,001, contracts are at their 4th lowest count since 2005, the lowest counts were in 2006-2008 and normal range is 11,000-13,000. Buyers are not the only ones holding back due to higher mortgage rates, sellers are too. New listings added to the Arizona Regional MLS are the lowest ever recorded going back at least 23 years. This may be shocking to some as there has been a 200% increase in supply year-over-year, but last year at this time supply was merely 4,820 active listings. The reality is that ARMLS active supply spiked over 300% last year between March and October, peaking a ...

Accepted Contracts Up 86% in 5 Weeks
Phoenix Back to a Seller’s Market! But It’s Not 2020-2022 Again

For Buyers:
The Spring season is upon Greater Phoenix. February hosts the Waste Management Open and Super Bowl LVII this year, putting the metro area in the national spotlight more than usual during our peak season for weather, tourism, and buyer activity. This, combined with mortgage rates briefly stabilizing between 6.0-6.2% in January, contributed to an 86% increase in accepted contracts since the beginning of the year. Six major cities moved out of balanced markets into seller’s markets over the last 4 weeks: Phoenix, Avondale, Glendale, Tempe, Mesa, and Gilbert. Two cities came out of buyer’s markets into balance: Peoria and Surprise. Only Goodyear, Queen Creek, Maricopa, and Buckeye remain in buyer’s markets at this stage. Now 11 out of the 17 major cities are in seller’s markets, but much weaker ones compared to the last 2.5 years. The; ...

January 2023 
 
Phoenix Buyer Market - Aaaand It’s Gone
Median Price Down $65,000 Since May

For Buyers:
Last year, traditional buyers took a back seat to an influx of cash investors and speculators who outbid them. Then mortgage rates increased and suppressed their power even more. This was especially prominent in the market under $500K where owner occupant buyers made up just 56.8% of sales in June (normally 70-75%), and investors took 31% (normally 11-17%). As of November, traditional buyers have once again returned to 71% market share under $500K, and investors have retreated under 20%. Investors make up the majority of losses associated with recent price declines. This is great news, especially for first-time home buyers, as prices have come down significantly for starter homes. The median sales price for a 1,400-1,600 sq. ft. single family home has declined from $435K in May to $370K so far in January; a decline of $65,000, or 15%. At today’s mortgag; ...

*Apache Junction, AZ Events:
https://www.apachejunctionaz.gov/193/Special-Events
 
*Mesa AZ,
https://downtownmesa.com/events
 
Downtown Mesa Farmers Market: Every Saturday from 8am – 11am.
https://dtmesafarmersmarket.com/
 
Mesa Arts Center:
https://www.mesaartscenter.com/events
 
Bell Bank Park Events
https://bellbankpark.com/events/
 
*Phoenix, AZ
https://www.visitphoenix.com/events/annual-events
 
*Queen Creek, AZ Events:
https://queencreekchamber.com/events-calendar/
 
*Scottsdale, AZ Events:
https://www.experiencescottsdale.com/events/
 
Barrett-Jackson:
https://barrettjacksonvip.com/barrett-jackson-auction-2023-scottsdale
 
*Tempe AZ,
https://www.tempetourism.com/events/category/festivals/
 
Rock “n” Roll Arizona Marathon & ½ marathon:
https://www.runrocknroll.com/arizona
 
Live music at Tempe Marketplace:
https://tempemarketplace.com/events
 
 
*; ...

One-by-One, Most Cities in Greater Phoenix Succumb to a Buyer’s Market
44% of October Sales Involve Seller Paid Concessions to Buyer
 
For Buyers:
­Buyer demand has been more reactive to mortgage rates than normal, but that’s to be expected at the rate of increase we’ve seen this year. In terms of affordability in Greater Phoenix, a household making the median family income should normally be able to afford 60-75% of what’s sold. That measure for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2022 was only 22%. Some believe it would take years for affordability to return to a normal range unless sales prices drop dramatically, but that’s not necessarily true. As rising mortgage rates have quickly pushed affordability down, declining mortgage rates can quickly push it back up.
 
Affordability is determined on 3 things:  family income, 30-yr mortgage rates, and sales price. Price is not the only factor that needs to change in order to push affordabil; ...